STORM FORECAST
VALID Wed 22 Mar 06:00 - Thu 23 Mar 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 21 Mar 20:03 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Intense arctic trough is present over northern Europe ... where cold maritime airmass characerized by neutral lapse rates and some CAPE leads to snow showers. Especially over the North Sea ... where coldest airmass is expected in the 500 hPa level ... some showers may be accompanied by thunder. To the south ... southern branch of polar jet stream forms an amplified trough over Iberian Peninsula and northern Africa. Several strong vort-maxima rotate around the base of this trough. While the trough moves eastward ... QG forcing is expected tp spread into central Mediterranean during the period. At lower levels ... very warm and stable airmass is advected into eastern-central Mediterranean ahead of the through. To the west ... convectively mixed airmass spreads eastward in the range of the upper trough.

DISCUSSION

...Western/central Mediterranean, France ...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the range of the upper trough. While vertical wind shear will be weak as shown by available models ... chance for severe thunderstorms seems to be not enhanced. An isolated hail/wind event is not ruled out completely, though.

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